
Arithmetic, Population and Energy - a talk by Al Bartlett
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Choose Bartlett’s lecture for a sustained argument about exponential growth. Recalculate examples and distinguish the arithmetic from its historical inputs.
Separate an arithmetic result from a dated scenario
This small energy collection includes forceful arguments about growth, transition and decline. Begin by distinguishing mathematical relationships from empirical assumptions about resources, substitution and the speed of social change.
Bartlett’s lecture is useful for reconstructing the implications of a constant percentage growth rate. Smil’s presentation adds a historical perspective on the difficulty of changing energy systems. The arithmetic can be exact while a forecast built on it remains uncertain, because growth rates, technologies and behavior can change. Read the two as tools for examining scenarios rather than as independent proof of a particular date for resource exhaustion or societal collapse.

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Choose Bartlett’s lecture for a sustained argument about exponential growth. Recalculate examples and distinguish the arithmetic from its historical inputs.

Trottier Institute for Sustainability in Engineering and Design
Choose Smil’s transition talk for a scale-and-history perspective. Its expectations should be compared with subsequent evidence rather than treated as current measurements.
Old resource estimates and forecasts should not be repeated as current facts. Neither lecture establishes an inevitable collapse date or a complete assessment of today’s energy options.
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