Exponential growth and epidemics

Just watched the 3brown1blue video today, which talks about exponential growth and fixes it to the latest actual COVID-19 numbers. Really helped it all click. [VIDEO] Edit: separate HN discussion: [LINK]

To be exact, it's a "logistic curve", which initially is exponential. From this 3Blue1Brown excellent video: [VIDEO]

And those who don't understand, or need a refresher on, exponential growth should watch this great video by 3Blue1Brown. Exponential growth and epidemics: [VIDEO]

I live in Bergen County. There is a lack of panic - although I'm on the north side, opposite of the most infected parts. I went grocery shopping earlier today, there were a few people with masks but no one was really trying to keep a distance from others. Plenty of people there, perhaps a few less than usual. At times there are so many people that they have to restrict entry into the store and create a line outside (possibly to help with social distancing, but there are still too many people in the store for that to matter). It's the opposite of social distancing. The disaster in NYC, and the counties immediately north/east of Bergen (Westchester, Rockland) is going to spill over. We're not going to be able to handle it and we don't have the clout of NY to push for more resources. In a recent video, 3Blue1Brown wrote "The only thing to fear is a lack of fear itself." This is what worries me. My parents are at risk as long-time smokers and if Valley runs out of ventilators and PPE, our major/usual option is out. (excellent video by the way) [VIDEO]

regardless of what you hear, china takes outbreaks very seriously and responds aggressively. the general population in china also takes it very seriously. normal behavior response in china looks like over reaction in the us. please watch this video by 3blue1brown [VIDEO] china is past its inflection point and we have yet to determine where our inflection point will be. everyone should be changing your behavior now. the fact that sars-cov didn’t get as far in 2002 as sars-cov-2 virus is currently going should be concerning. the us could ignore prior outbreaks because china is aggressive to stop it.

But months ago they really couldn’t have known. We still don’t know how many will be infected. All we can do is take precautionary measures. The WHO messaging should have been stronger and earlier, but it isn’t their fault for not labeling a pandemic months ago. Granted, there was enough data and research done to squarely label this as a pandemic, and that’s really where I assign blame on them. Here is a neat video that helps put things in perspective for most any viewer. [VIDEO]

Maybe they should include this 3Blue1Brown video to explain what 'exponential' means in this context: [VIDEO]

This is the time to resort to drastic measures to prevent drastic consequences. Have you seen this from 3Blue1Brown: [VIDEO] "Exponential growth and epidemics" ?